A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
